PGE in capital markets

The strategy sets out the ways in which the company intends to strengthen its market position and ensure future profits. If investors agree with the strategy and know that it is being consistently implemented, this translates into their trust in the company's future results and thus the share price. An investor who sees that the company is implementing its long-term plans will be able to remain a shareholder and wait until these activities generate results.  Long-term processes are often difficult to observe at an instant, which is why investors pay attention to milestones - significant events that inform about implementation of important project stages (e.g. percentage level of progress at Opole II project is an example of such an indicator).

Expectations regarding future periodic results have a key impact on the share price. In market jargon, this means that the "market buys the future." The art of equity investing is really the art of foreseeing future results, while the investment itself is sort of a bet on what the next financial results will be. Investors eagerly await the publication of financial results. If the company presents financial results that are better than the market consensus, the share price goes up.

Companies can grow in two ways: organically, by developing production lines or acquiring new clients, or inorganically, by merging with and acquiring other entities. A successful merger or acquisition may bring about synergies (the new entities created as a result of a merger or acquisition is then worth more than the sum of the components).

Share price appreciation and dividends are the source of profit for investors. The level of dividend depends on two factors: the level of net profit generated and a decision on the allocation of this profit, i.e. dividend policy.

The largest shareholder by definition holds the largest number of shares. When this shareholder decides to sell some shares, the supply on the market increases. On the other hand, if the key shareholder increases its stake in the company, it encourages other investors. The market assumes that the strategic investor knows the company especially well (because it has invested a lot of funds in it) and may have an impact on the company via the general meeting. Smaller investors ask themselves whether the main investor believes in the company. Transactions by the company's key personnel (management board, supervisory board) are interpreted in the same way.

Global sentiment is affected by geopolitical events and central bank decisions - especially the Fed, EBC, BoE and BoJ.  If one of these institutions decides to increase the supply of money, this is immediately reflected in share prices around the world (we live in an era of integrated financial markets, this is an interconnected system).

There are days when most of the companies on the WSE go up and then there are days when most go down. If the market mood is bad, then even good news from the company might not be a sufficient incentive for investors. And vice versa: in times of general optimism, weaker data published by the company are overshadowed.

Investors observe data related to the state of the economy. This includes gross domestic product, level of interest rates, inflation, unemployment rate, average gross wages, production price indicators, industrial output. This data may be a reference for forecasts concerning demand for the company's products or its production costs.

Changes in the regulatory environment have a significant impact on financial results, investors' decisions and share prices. Decisions by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office concerning rates of return on invested capital for distribution companies, which specify the level of fees for such companies, are an example.

Commodity markets have a direct impact on company results. PGE sells electricity and colour-coded certificates on commodity markets and buys fuels and CO₂ emission allowances. Commodity markets are characterised by substantial volatility however long-term trends are also present. Price trends on commodity markets result from factors such as technological and regulatory changes. Prices on commodity markets are an important component of forecasts prepared by brokerage firms.